Friday, December 1 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

Dense Fog Advisory for all of East Mississippi except Wayne County from 9pm Friday to 10am Saturday.
Dense Fog Advisory for Sumter, Marengo, Greene, Hale, and Pickens counties until 9am Saturday.
Dense Fog Advisory for Wayne, Choctaw, and Clarke (AL) Counties until 8am Saturday.

Fog and low clouds have been particularly stubborn for us today as our lower December sun angle and weak winds have kept our fog bank almost completely intact from this morning. As we transition to this evening, dense fog will once again redevelop across the area with low clouds also following overnight. Clouds today have been as low as 300 feet, making visibility a problem even without fog.

The main challenge with this forecast is not our cold front next week but fog over the next two days. Every model but one shows fog ending in the morning with sunshine and highs in the 70s in the afternoon (which matches our current forecast). However, the model that does not keeps fog around both days, highs near 60, and conditions similar to today. This model also most accurately depicted our fog for today. Because of recent trends and model initialization errors, and against my going forecast, I am going to hold fog in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday and drop highs to near 60. If the fog breaks, which is not out of the question, highs will skyrocket into the 70s. Needless to say, I am not overly confident in this forecast, especially since the fog today was not expected to last this long, but I will shift the forecast to more accurately reflect the most likely scenario. The forecast for Saturday and Sunday as a higher than normal chance of busting.

Sunshine should return regardless by Monday in advance of our next system. Highs will reach the middle 70s as before a strong cold front blows into the area. This front will touch off showers as early as Tuesday morning with the bulk of the rain Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. A few storms may accompany the front, but it appears that severe weather is out of the question. Rain will linger into Wednesday morning with skies clearing through the back half of Wednesday. Total rainfall accumulation looks to be one to two inches, which is welcome news for our dry soils and drought conditions.

Behind the front, the coldest air so far this season arrives with highs struggling to 50 on Thursday and likely staying in the 40s on Friday. Lows will drop below freezing by Thursday morning with a hard freeze likely Friday morning. There is a chance that I may need to drop highs and lows below the current forecast, especially if the recent trend of super cold air making it this far south continues to show up in the models.