Tuesday, June 12 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

Isolated storms have been firing mainly along the state line and into parts of West Alabama this afternoon with storm coverage decreasing after sunset tonight. Any storm this evening could get strong to possibly severe with gusty winds and small hail. Rain will end tonight with partly cloudy skies lingering.

Two systems will drop through the area, one each day Wednesday and Thursday, to increase storm coverage across the area. Severe weather is unlikely, but storms could start as early as 10am Wednesday with rain lingering overnight Wednesday into Thursday with more storms on Thursday. Models are attempting to trend drier on Thursday, but I will hold rain chances steady for now.

We drop back to isolated storms on Friday, with likely the best coverage along and south of Interstate 20, which may not bode well for the State Games Opening Ceremony.

Saturday looks to be the drier day of the weekend as only pop-up storms will be around as high pressure builds and we sit between systems.

I am increasing rain chances for Father's Day slightly as we watch to see what happens with a tropical wave currently in the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center has dubbed this wave Invest 91L this morning as they track it over the course of the next week. Development into a tropical system is unlikely, and only 20% officially through five days, but it will bring plenty of moisture in the the Gulf. Where this tracks exactly is our concern for rain chances at least on Sunday. Models have continued an eastern jog in track, which is the reason for my small increase for now. Regardless of development, plenty of rain is likely along the Texas and Louisiana Coasts this weekend.

We should see a dry day on Tuesday as we sit between systems again.