Wednesday, December 6 Afternoon Forecast Discussion

It has been a cold, cloudy, and rainy day for us as moisture continues to stream into our area and cold air does as well. Temperatures have not moved much today as we have been sitting between 38 and 43 most of the day. Temperatures will drop to about 37 tonight as clouds and stray showers keep temperatures steady. Thursday will be almost a carbon copy of today thanks to the weather pattern not changing much as a system to our west begins to organize itself that will move through on Friday,

If you have been around Facebook today and have the right friends, you have likely seen posts or comments about snow on Friday. Well, that is a complicated issue at the moment, but the short version is that it is possible to see some flakes on Friday. An area of low pressure will be developing in the central Gulf of Mexico, and where it goes will determine how far north any precipitation will fall. A more eastward track and origin will keep us out of any precipitation while a more northern track and origin will see more of us with precipitation. As of now, the best chance for precipitation in general is south of Interstate 20 and east of Interstate 59 with the absolute best chance along the Highway 84 corridor. Within the Highway 84 corridor is also the best shot to see snow mixing in with rain with no accumulation as we will be above freezing. Even here, there may not be enough moisture or a changeover if precipitation holds more to our south and east. A more northern track could allow flakes to mix in up to Interstate 20 with perhaps all of us seeing a shot in the most northern route, but models are disagreeing on track and where the precipitation will be. Until that clears up, likely tomorrow, saying who will and who won't is not possible with a high level of confidence. I will include a mix in the seven day forecast accounting for the uncertainty as to who all will at this point, but accumulation is not expected more than a dusting on grassy surfaces, if that.

All precipitation ends on Friday afternoon with temperatures plummeting after sunset into the lower 20s. There are hints that the upper 10s could also be possible, but that seems too cold at the moment. Highs will be in the 50s through the weekend with lows below freezing. We will warm to near 60, our normal high, by Monday before we get another glancing blow of cold air. We will see a mini roller coaster next week with temperatures but rain looks to stay away until the end of the week.