The morning weather balloon soundings are in and the atmosphere is still showing a great deal of instability. Around 900mb or about 800 meters up, a large inversion is present. This inversion will help prevent storms from forming from just day time heating; however the upper level support associated with the system will guarantee that storms will form. CAPE values around 2000 are on the high side as well as helicity values (spinning winds) greater than 300. All of this indicates that the atmosphere is capable of producing large tornadoes that are long tracked, and hail. Damaging winds is also a major threat, especially to those who live in a mobile home. Heavy rainfalls with these storms could also give us flooding problems as well.
TIMELINE: The western most counties will be affected from about noon through the afternoon hours. Meridian, Philadelphia, Quitman will be around 2pm to into the evening hours, our Alabama counties will be evening through the overnight hours. Our greatest chance for tornadoes will be during the afternoon hours, transition into a wind event through the overnight hours. Although winds will be the greatest threat through the overnight, tornadoes will still be possible.
BOTTOM LINE: This is the most threatening severe weather event we've seen since April 27, although not nearly as strong as that one, and so it needs to be taken seriously. Now is the time to prepare, you can pick them up at area Walgreen’s or Cowboy Maloney’s. They are easy to set up and can give you warnings when the power goes out. This is not going to be like April 27, 2011, but this is still shaping up to be a significant severe weather event.
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