The entire US is currently seeing pretty active weather, and unfortunately that trend is going to continue for the next couple of days. This forecast discussion will focus mainly on the threat for severe weather tomorrow and the heavy rain that looks to impact our area through Tuesday.
TONIGHT: Clouds will start to increase ahead of a cold front currently situated over Central Texas. This cold front is associated with that big Low Pressure system that came ashore earlier this week on the West Coast of the US and Canada. It's currently situated over the Four Corners region, and will continue to move Northeast. Blizzard Watches and Warnings are in effect for the Northern Plains ahead of this storm. That cold front on the Southern edge should start firing storms up in Central/East Texas tonight and form into a squall line.
TOMORROW: The morning hours will be cloudy, and rain should start to overspread the area from West to East through mid-morning and the early afternoon hours. The cold front that came through yesterday and knocked our lows down into the 30s last night will move back Northward as a warm front, and that will help make our atmosphere pretty unstable before the cold front gets here. That energy, combined with very fast, and turning winds aloft, will support severe thunderstorms, hail, and tornadoes. The highest tornado threat will be in storms that form ahead of the main line. Tornadoes and gusty winds will also be possible when the line comes through, most likely broken. All of our viewing area is under a "Slight Risk" of severe weather for tomorrow, but the Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area from Central Louisiana and Arkansas to the Mississippi/Alabama state line as under a slightly more enhanced risk. Once the Weather Service sees the storms start tomorrow (and if everything goes according to forecast), I would not be surprised to see them bump that area to a "Moderate Risk". Along with the possibility of severe weather, we will see heavy rain. The highest rain totals should be along and North of the Natchez Trace, but most of our area should pick up at least an inch tomorrow, with higher totals in the heavier thunderstorms.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: After Disturbance #1 moves out late tomorrow night, we should see a little bit of a lull in the rain during the day on Monday, but another system should develop back to our Southwest and bring heavy rain for much of the day Tuesday. Right now severe possibilities for Tuesday look low, so the main threat will be heavy rain. Before all is said and done on Wednesday, some of our areas could pick up as much as 4-5 inches of rain, with most of seeing at least 2".
REST OF THE WEEK: Cooler and drier air will filter in beginning Wednesday. The real drying out starts on Thursday when the sun will come out, but temperatures will drop to where they should be for this time of year, with highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 30s. We look to get a reinforcing shot of cold air on Saturday that could drop lows into the 20s over the weekend.
WHAT DO I NEED TO DO?: Go about your day as planned tomorrow, but just make sure you have a way to get warnings. That includes having a NOAA Weather Radio or location-based smartphone app. We'll be here watching and posting updates to the web and breaking into TV if needed. You'll also definitely want to keep the umbrella or rain jacket handy through mid-week.