Severe Weather Forecast Discussion

By: Aaron Morrison Email
By: Aaron Morrison Email

Temperatures are on track to hit 80 degrees today making for a beautiful day area wide. The break in clouds this afternoon will are what is helping the temperatures stay on track. Through today into this evening winds will continue to be breezy out of the south. As the sun sets and we head towards the evening hours rain will begin to advance from the northwest and will bring with it two rounds of storms.

Timing:

The first round of storms will impact the western portion of the viewing area after 1 am and will continue to move east with a break around Monday morning on the storms. The second round of storms will impact the viewing area from about noon and will last till the evening hours.

Setup:

An upper level low is advancing to the south behind a cold front that will drop our temperatures. With ample amounts of moisture present, this system will have plenty of moisture to work with creating flooding problems. Models are in agreement that the best upper level forcing for the storms will stay well to the north of us, only impacting our northern counties. However, there is still plenty of ingredients in place over the rest of the viewing area for some severe weather.

Threats:

Sunday night into Monday morning:

The best chance for severe weather will be west of Highway 15, where damaging winds, hail up to an inch and some tornadoes are possible. The threat will decrease by sunrise. For the counties east of Highway 15 damaging winds are still a factor with few tornadoes possible. Hail won't be much of a factor, but pea size hail will be possible.

Monday Afternoon into Evening:

The entire viewing area will be at risk for Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph with hail up to 1.5 inches. Tornadoes are possible, but the threat is limited. The heaviest rainfall will fall with this second round of weather.

Flooding:

With more than enough moisture for the system to play with, flooding will be a concern. Precipitable water, which is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere if all the water in the column were to fall, is will be near 1.5". Everyone is at risk of 1-3 inches of rain across the viewing area with some locations receiving 3+ inches. With the grounds already soggy and rivers falling, flooding remains a concern. 1-2" of water won't effect rivers much, but if more fall we could be looking at another flooding event.

Behind the front, highs and lows will drop about 20 degrees. Tuesday night into Wednesday we are looking at another freezing event, with temperatures sitting at or below freezing. Do make sure that you cover any vegetation that you may have. By Wednesday, we will start warming up and be back near 80 degrees by the weekend, before another shot of rain arrives.


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