Severe Weather Forecast Discussion

By: Aaron Morrison Email
By: Aaron Morrison Email

Despite the non-severe storms that moved through this morning, today has been a beautiful day. A mix of sun and clouds allowed us to warm up quite nicely to the mid 80s. Good news for us, not so good news for the Mississippi Delta as the break in clouds today allowed for more instability. As the system slowly but surely advances towards us, the chance of severe weather increases. Other than an isolated storm tonight that should remain below severe criteria, a warm night is in store for all of us.

As Monday dawns, the threat for severe weather becomes imminent. With this storm system moving through, all modes of severe weather are possible. An associated low pressure located on the plains continues to spin pieces of energy that will be directed towards the southeast ahead of a cold front.

TIMING:
(1 PM Monday - Tuesday Morning)

Other than a few isolated storms to start of the day, the main threat for severe weather looks to move through the area around 1 PM. Depending on how much sun we see before storms develop and/or arrive depends on how unstable the atmosphere will get. Another round of storms looks to move through the area around evening and last through the morning hours.

THREATS:

With both rounds of storms that move through, enhanced severe threats are possible. The SPC already has most of Mississippi and West Alabama under a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow.

Threats include but are not limited to:

- Tornadoes:
* Violent long track tornadoes are possible with both rounds of storms that move through the area. Any Tornado warning that is issued take seriously, it's better to be prepared than to not be ready.
* Numerous tornadoes have already formed and touched down all across Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, and Mississippi so it's important to take all storms wisely.

- Winds:
* Damaging winds in excess of 70 mph are possible with the storms that move through.
* It is important to note, that although not classified as a tornado, winds in excess of 70 mph can do significant damage to homes. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued, take notice that damaging winds could be associated with the storms.

- Hail:
* Hail up to golf ball size and even hen eggs (2") is prominent tomorrow.
* It is important to note, that with the dewpoints creeping into the upper 60s lower 70s, there is plenty of moisture for this system to work with. The higher the dewpoint, the more moisture that storms have to work with. For storms to grow stronger it feeds off of the moisture in the atmosphere and we will have plenty of that.

- Flooding:
* 3+ inches of rain is expected with this event. If some areas see training of storms, some spots could receive more rain.
* Flash flood watches have already been issued across most of the viewing area and it's important to keep an eye on area lakes and rivers.

Depending on how well the atmosphere can rejuvenate Tuesday will depend on our severity. Right now it is not necessary to go into detail of what we will see, until we get through tomorrow. As of now the SPC has the entire viewing area under a slight risk of severe weather.

If you don't already have a Midland Weather Radio there is still about 15 hours for you to prepare for this event. Make sure you have a severe weather plan and enforce that plan when storms strike. You can pick up Midland Weather Radios at Walgreens in Meridian and Philadelphia and Cowboy Maloney's in Meridian. Take this event seriously, remember always be prepared. It's better to be prepared for this event and have a plan of action to enforce than to just sit and wait.


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