Rain continues to overspread the Newscenter 11 viewing area this morning, and rain will continue for the afternoon and evening hours. As the area of low pressure moves closer to us this evening, and temperatures increase into the lower to middle 60s, thunderstorms will start to become more numerous with the risk of them producing severe weather.
A warm front will lift northward this afternoon and evening, bringing with it warmer and even more humid air. This will help set the stage to transition storms from being elevated in nature to surface based. Uplift will also increase as the upper level trough moves over top of us to help produce more storms.
Storms look to begin having the threat for severe weather around 7pm this evening and could still tap into the wind field set up for tornadoes until about 1am Monday. Storms will move from southwest to northeast with the potential that storms could keep moving over the same areas causing an increased flooding risk.
The main limiting factor for severe weather will be how far north the warm front actually makes it with the warmer and more humid air. If temperatures and dew points fail to make it to the lower to middle 60s, then the severe threat will be greatly diminished.
Also limiting severe weather potential will be more rainfall than currently expected. If the rain shield expands and remains in tact south of Interstate 20, that could limit just how much of the energy is actually available as the warm front lifts north.
The best chance to see severe weather will be locations along and south of Interstate 20. The only areas really capable of seeing severe weather will be south of the warm front, so how far north this advances will be the key to our severe weather threat.
Be sure to stay with Newscenter 11 throughout the day for the latest updates and make sure you have your NOAA Weather Radio functioning as this will be an overnight event.