Last week's victories by Democratic candidates for governor in Virginia and New Jersey and low approval ratings for Republican President George Bush do not necessarily mean Democrats can breathe easier going into next year's elections in Alabama.

That's the view from political experts, party officials and gubernatorial candidates.

Political scientist Jess Brown of Athens State University predicts the wins by Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine in Virginia and Senator Jon Corzine in New Jersey would energize Democratic Party activists, but otherwise would have little effect on races for governor and other offices in Alabama next year.

Brown says statewide candidates will win or lose based on the issues that will be talked about here in Alabama.

Bush campaigned in Alabama in 2002 for then-Congressman Bob Riley, who narrowly defeated incumbent Gov. Don Siegelman in a hotly contested race.

Riley is now running for re-election and faces a challenge in the June 6 Republican primary from former Chief Justice Roy Moore.

Siegelman is trying to get his old job back and is running in the Democratic Party primary against Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley.

While Bush's popularity is down nationwide, he still remains relatively popular in more conservative Alabama, said

University of Alabama political scientist David Lanoue says if Bush's numbers are as bad next year as they are now, it's possible no one will be in a hurry to invite the president to come to Alabama and campaign for them.

But Lanoue said he doesn't think an anti-Bush campaign would work in Alabama, and, he says, "I would not expect Don Siegelman or Lucy Baxley to do that."

Riley says he would be proud for Bush to return to Alabama to campaign for him during next year's election.

Riley says he's "probably the only announced candidate who voted for George Bush. I am proud of that vote. I got out and campaigned for him."
He said he doesn't read too much into the Democratic wins last week since in both cases the winners are replacing Democratic governors.

Riley says Alabamians "are going to elect a governor based on his record. They are going to look at how their lives will be impacted locally."

Siegelman said he thinks the outcome of next year's governor's election will come down to the merits of the candidates and will have little to do with the popularity of Bush or the success of Democratic candidates in other parts of the country.

But Siegelman said he did feel that Riley got a boost when Bush campaigned for him in the state in 2002.

Siegelman says Bush was at an all-time high in popularity at that time, and he says having him come into the state and Laura Bush come in did have something of an impact.

Siegelman said "maybe this does put next year's race on more of a level playing field."

Moore, speaking through a spokesman, said he doesn't believe last week's elections in Virginia and New Jersey "will have any bearing on the election here in Alabama."

Baxley could not be reached for comment.