Breaking Down the Presidential Primary

Local political analyst Dr. Kathy Baxter says one obvious difference with this year's presidential primary there still is not a nominee following the election in the twin states.

"Nobody has a lock yet on the nomination," Baxter says. "Romney of course is ahead. He's got 2 to 1 over Santorum."

Baxter says now, it all boils down to delegates for the candidates as they continue onward. Currently, she says Romney says about 500 total delegates compared to Santorum's 250 and Gingrich's 150. She says that means the delegates already pledged are obligated to vote for their candidate at the Republican National Convention.

"Either no one will have a majority of delegates by the time we get to August 27th," Baxter predicts. "And in which case, they'll have that first round of voting. Those delegates will vote as the voters instructed them to vote."

She tells us a brokered convention is possible after that in which each delegate may vote as he or she sees fit. That means the candidates will be visiting each state's delegation trying to win over support. The candidates campaigning efforts here in the twin states made for an extremely close race Tuesday night. Baxter says that did not surprise her.

"If you break down the group of people that each appeals to, it's a good mix for the Mississippi voters," Baxter says.

Baxter also says Tuesday's low voter turnout did not surprise her either, as she says a 30% turnout is typical for a presidential primary where an incumbent is seeking reelection.


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