Top-Pick QBs No Guarantee in NFL Draft

By: Associated Press
By: Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) -- Quarterback has become the overwhelmingly
essential position in pro football. Simply look at the guys behind
center for recent Super Bowl winners.
When a team owns the first spot in the NFL draft, it's nearly a
given that a quarterback will be selected, or at the very least in
the running to be the choice. Since the NFL and AFL fully merged in
1970, 19 QBs have been selected No. 1 overall. In the last 14
drafts, 11 quarterbacks have gone first, ranging from such
champions as the Manning brothers to such busts as JaMarcus Russell and David Carr.
NFL Network's show "The Ones" examined the careers of those 19
top picks, gathering their memories. Some are tinged with a title --
four, actually, for Terry Bradshaw, the 1970 top pick; three for
Troy Aikman (1989); two for John Elway (1983), Eli Manning (2004)
and Jim Plunkett (1971), one for Peyton Manning (1998).
Others have few positive recollections from their pro careers.
"When you are the first pick in the draft, the bar is set so
high," said Tim Couch, the Kentucky quarterback taken in 1999 by
the expansion Cleveland Browns. "If you are not winning Super
Bowls or not going to Pro Bowls year-in and year-out, you are
considered a bust.
"The most frustrating part is they really don't take into
consideration what you were surrounded by. I never played with a
Pro Bowler on offense. You look at the guys who have had success,
Troy was surrounded by a Hall of Fame receiver (Michael Irvin).
That's how things fall into place."
Carson Palmer, chosen first in 2003 by Cincinnati and now with
Oakland, think some top picks try too hard and wind up struggling.
"There's a reason that you are being talked about that highly
in the draft," Palmer said. "Just be you, don't try to be
somebody you think they want you to be."
DON'T PLAY THE QB: Sam Dorward, a junior at Yale studying
economics and statistics, believes it's unwise to play a rookie
quarterback -- don't tell that to the Colts and Redskins, who plan
to do exactly that with the top two picks Thursday night, Andrew
Luck and Robert Griffin III.
Dorward's statistical analysis covering more than a decade shows
that "benching quarterbacks during their rookie year causes them
to play much better throughout their entire career." He argues
that they complete a higher percentage of passes (6.5 per 100
passes) and have a higher defense-adjusted value over average
(DVOA) rating than quarterbacks who did start during their rookie
year (by 9.5 points).
DVOA is a metric that compares the performance of quarterbacks
in similar situations. For example, how does Tom Brady perform on
first-and-10 at his 30-yard-line compared to all other quarterbacks
in that same situation?
"Look at Drew Brees and Kyle Orton," Dorward said. "They
completed about the same percentage of passes, threw about the same percentage of interceptions, and played about the same number of games at the same college. They took the starting spot for teams that had the same record in the previous year.
"But Kyle Orton started during his first season, while Drew
Brees started during his second season. Orton's first season was a
disaster, while Brees' first season was respectable. And Orton has
never fully recovered. In his career, Brees has had a DVOA that is
20 points higher and a completion percentage that is 7.5 points
NFL draft consultant Gil Brandt, the former general manager of
the Cowboys, understands the rationale behind Dorward's studies.
He's not sure it applies any longer.
"I think eight to 10 years ago, that was a valid thing,"
Brandt said. "I think that now, the quarterback that comes to
college, then to the NFL, is so much more advanced than before.
They have the 7 on 7 scrimmages or workouts they do in the
summertime even before they get to college.
"The quarterbacks who go into the colleges are so much more
ready to play, and then the same thing happens when they come into
the pros, so much more than just a few years ago.'
Brandt once believed a quarterback needed 30 or more games in
college before he was ready to play in the NFL -- whether
immediately or soon after. That thinking has changed, too.
"I think with Andy Dalton and Cam Newton, you saw it last year
how it is beneficial to play right away," Brandt said. "Dalton
led his team to the playoffs and Newton destroyed just about every
rookie record previously set for quarterbacks."
FAMILY AFFAIR: Several players in this year's draft crop have
family connections to the NFL, starting with Stanford quarterback
Andrew Luck.
The Colts have told Luck, the son of former NFL QB Oliver Luck --
now the athletic director at West Virginia -- he will be the first
overall choice Thursday night.
He also apparently has a more obscure relationship, to a Pro
Football Hall of Famer, William "Link" Lyman, a tackle for four
pro teams, including the Bears at the end of his career (1933-34).
According to, Luck is an eighth cousin to Lyman, who
made the Hall of Fame in 1964 and died in 1972.
Northwestern running back Drake Dunsmore's father, Pat, played
tight end for the Bears, and Maryland RB Davin Meggett's dad, Dave,
won a Super Bowl with the Giants. Ohio State RB Dan Herron's
brother, David, played for the Chiefs last season and now is with
the Saints.
Jeff Fuller the Texas A&M receiver, is son of Jeff Fuller, the
former 49ers safety who won two Super Bowls. Wisconsin wideout Nick Toon is the son of Al Toon, a first-round pick in 1985 and a star
for the Jets before concussions cut short his career.
Southern California tackle Matt Kalil, projected to go in the
top five on Thursday, is the younger brother of Ryan Kalil, a
center for the Panthers.
Syracuse defensive lineman Chandler Jones is the younger brother
of Baltimore's Arthur Jones. Texas LB Emmanuel Acho's brother Sam
was taken in the fourth round of the 2011 draft by Arizona.
Linebacker Jonathan Massaquoi of Troy has two cousins in the
league: TE Visanthe Shiancoe of the Vikings and WR Mohamed
Massaquoi of Cleveland.
Virginia CB Chase Minnifield's father, Frank, was a Pro Bowl
cornerback for Cleveland.
EXTRA POINTS: It was a busy Wednesday for the 26 players who'll
be attending the NFL draft Thursday night. They started the day at
the Chelsea Waterside Park in Manhattan and played football with a
few dozen kids for the NFL's Play 60 Youth Football Festival. They
also conducted their last set of interviews for a half-hour before
heading to Radio City Music Hall, the site of the draft, for a
group photo. The day also included a reception on the trading floor
of the New York Stock Exchange. "Doing things like this and
enjoying the experiences make it all fun," Alabama safety Mark
Barron said. "We've all been working toward this all our lives.
There's a little anxiety to it as well, but it's fun, too."

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