Thursday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15-20
KT. SSMI-DERIVED TPW SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE PROTRUDING
NORTHWARD IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS MODEL 850 MB LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. A SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE UW-CIMMS TPW PRODUCT WHERE A HIGH AMPLITUDE BULGE OF MOISTURE IS OBSERVED. THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY DEFINED AGAINST SURFACE DATA AND A FEW SHIP OBS WITHIN THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 58W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SRN MEXICO
ALONG 94W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM
POSITION OF THE WAVE WITH SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE SW
GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 5N30W 2N40W 3N51W. SURFACE
WIND DATA ACROSS W AFRICA SHOWS POSSIBLE WAVE IS E OF DAKAR
SENEGAL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-6N BETWEEN 28W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N72W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND S MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. 10-15 KT SE WINDS DOMINATE FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 86W-89W. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER FLORIDA...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.

THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO DRIFT S DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE N FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING LOW CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-78W ...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA AND CUBA W OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE W OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION E OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS W OF 77W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 29N40W 29N50W
DISSIPATING TO 29N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
30N-33N BETWEEN 32W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER WITH AXIS FROM 32N24W TO 26N32W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER NE FLORIDA PRODUCING
CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N62W EMBEDDED IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 60W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N40W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


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