Friday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED 21W S OF 17N AND MOVING W AT 15 KT
WITH ANIMATION OF SSMI-DERIVED TPW ALSO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
IN THIS AREA. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS AT THE MOMENT..

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND E CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN
150 NM OF 14N59W BUT DECREASING IN INTENSITY AT THE MOMENT.

A TOPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W AND EXTENDS AS FAR N AS PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE SEEMS TO BE LOSING IDENTITY WITH A LARGER AREA OF INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO HAS LOST IDENTITY
AND IS DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 35W AND FROM 02S TO 05N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
AREA AT 30N98W AND CONTINUING S INTO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N94W WHICH IN TURN IS DRIFTING W. AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N80W HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A CREST NEAR 30N87W. DRY
UPPER AIR IS NOTED W OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE W PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CYCLONE...AND UNDER THE
RIDGE...ENHANCED EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW SPREADING N
UNDER THE RIDGE...BASICALLY DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
GULF E OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCED A FEW TSTMS EARLIER ALONG SOUTHERN CUBA AND OVER HISPANIOLA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE
ORIGINATING FROM INTENSE TSTMS THAT FLARED EARLIER OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...IS NOW STREAMING E OVER THE N CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM COLOMBIA TO PUERTO RICO AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION. AT THE LOW LEVELS THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN EASTERLY WIND SURGE APPEARS TO BE ALONG 75W WITH ONLY TRADE WIND CUMULUS OBSERVED BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS ALONG THE WAVE AT 14N BUT DECREASING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 28N76W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N75W. DEBRIS
MOISTURE...SOME ORIGINATING OVER FL ON THU AFTERNOON...IS NOTED
OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...ROUGHLY W OF LINE 20N66W TO 30N75W. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS...INDICATED ON LIGHTNING DATA...ARE STILL FLARING WITHIN THIS LARGE MOISTURE
AREA. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 73W AND 35W WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE FILLING NEAR 25N59W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 31N33W TO 27N45W TO 27N49W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 28N55W TO 27N63W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR BERMUDA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A TROUGH ALONG 32N05W TO 25N20W TO 20N27W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 17N15W TO A SHARP CREST AT 12N42W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ DISCUSSION ABOVE.


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