Saturday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 25W-26W FROM 07N TO 19N AND MOVING W AT 15-20 KT WITH THE GENERAL POSITION SUGGESTED IN LATEST ANIMATION OF SSMI-DERIVED TPW. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AND ALSO EXTEND 360 NM E OF THE WAVE THROUGHOUT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICAANT CONVECTION OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W-67W FROM 07N TO 19N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND CYCLONIC TURNING IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS...MOST PRONOUNCED OVER VENEZUELA WHERE SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS AT 09N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM 05N TO 16N WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ENHANCED OVER NW VENEZUELA AT THE MOMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WAVE WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS LATER TODAY AFTER A FEW HOURS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAN BE ANALYZED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W TO 09N25W TO 01S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N29W TO 04N49W...AND ELSEWHERE S OF THE ITCZ TO 02S BETWEEN 29W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CUTTING OFF NEAR 23N95W AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT W WITH TIME. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 13N89W HAS AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A GENTLE CREST ALONG POINTS 23N91W 25N88W 23N82W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS E OF THE AREA OVER THE NW BAHAMAS...BUT ITS ENVELOPE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS EXPANDED W ACROSS FLORIDA WITH NW WINDS ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE E OF A LINE FROM 29N84W TO 25N80W. DRY UPPER AIR IS OBSERVED W OF LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N98W. DRY UPPER AIR IS ALSO SHIFTING W ACROSS FLORIDA N OF 26.5N...AND MAY MOVE W OVER THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EXTREME E GULF LATER TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS COASTAL CONVECTION ALONG W FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST WITH DENSE MOISTURE SPREADING S BETWEEN 83W AND 89W OVER THE AREA N OF 26N. ANOTHER MOISTURE SOURCE WAS CONVECTION ENHANCED LATE FRI OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THIS DEBRIS MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 23N95W. AT THE
LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA SW THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 18N71W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 07N74W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ELSEWHERE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18N69W TO 16N82W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST AND SUPPLIED FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE
ORIGINATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER VENEZUELA IS ADVECTED N ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 69W AROUND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE NOW BUILDING W OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 27N76W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA. DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES IS STREAMING SE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THEN TURNING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO AN AREA WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 22N66W TO 29N77W. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH LYING ROUGHLY N OF POINTS
31N70W 25N56W 31N30W WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN THIS TROUGH W OF 52W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG 31N31W 27N36W AND IS NOW LIFTING NE AS A WARM FRONT FROM 27N36W TO 31N48W WITH CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N50W TO 28N59W TO 30N70W. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO
DOMINATED BY A DECAYING TROUGH ALONG 31N08W TO 26N11W TO 27N21W WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE FORMING NEAR 29N21W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 24N36W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE AFRICAN COAST SW OF THIS SAME TROUGH ALONG 18N16W TO A SHARP CREST AT 21N24W. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS FOUND WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 31N19W TO 12N50W.


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