Saturday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 27W FROM 7N TO 19N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT WITH THE GENERAL POSITION SUGGESTED IN LATEST ANIMATION OF SSMI-DERIVED TPW. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ONLY NOTED EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO WEST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. IT AXIS IS ALONG 68W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE
MOISTURE PRODUCTS AND IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED BELOW UNDER THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. AS A RESULT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N TO THE SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH OTHER CELLS AFFECTING THE EASTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 18N MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ILL DEFINED AND IS EMBEDDED IN A SWATH OF EASTERLIES. IT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE 18Z MAP.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N25W 8N30W 4N42W 2N50W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EMERGED FROM AFRICA THIS MORNING. IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...AWAITING NEW DATA FOR MORE EVIDENCE. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9N14W TO 8N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 21N94W AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT SW WITH TIME. A SFC TROUGH... REFLECTION OF THIS CLOSED LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF AND RUNS FROM 22N95W TO 18N93W. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS E OF THE AREA JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT ITS ENVELOPE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS EXPANDED W ACROSS FLORIDA WITH N TO NW WINDS ALOFT OVER THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 86W. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE GULF. CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER THE SW GULF DUE TO THE CLOSE LOW/SFC TROUGH THERE AND OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE FROM N FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GIVING THE AREA LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ON SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 15N73W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND N CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SE CARIBBEAN. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF PANAMA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BRING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MON THROUGH WED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN REGION.

ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO OVER HISPANIOLA. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS ALSO INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z SFC MAP FROM 22N60W TO 20N70W. MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH THE BASE REACHING 27N. THE ATTENDANT FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG 29N38W 27N55W AND 25N63W. LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING MAINLY WEST OF 60W WHILE IS STILL GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A SECOND COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA ALONG 31N48W 28N60W TO 29N72W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS ALSO DOMINATED BY A DECAYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N40W WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE WEST AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE EAST. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.


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