Sunday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO BE ALONG 18.5W FROM 05N TO 13N BASED ON CYCLONIC TURNING ON THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 33W-34W FROM 06N TO 19N AND MOVING W AT ESTIMATED 20 KT WITH A CLASSIC INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN. DUST IS OBSERVED ON THIS MORNINGS VISIBLE IMAGERY E OF THE ANALYZED WAVE POSITION. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT...AND THE LARGE AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE WAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY BUT IS STILL EVIDENT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W FROM 07N TO 19N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING CONTINUES ALONG THE WAVE NEAR THE BORDER OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 17N71W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N13W TO 05N20W TO 08N34W TO 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W AND 28W WITH CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATED AT 06N19.5W WHICH MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE AXIS OF A NEW TROPICAL WAVE.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N37W TO 01S45W...AND ELSEWHERE S OF THE ITCZ TO 03S BETWEEN 34W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONE IS AT 20.5N96W AND
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WSW WITH TIME. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CRESTING AT 23N90W. CLUSTER OF TSTMS WERE ENHANCED EARLIER NEAR 18N94W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE BUT REMAINING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER CYCLONE E OF THE AREA NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS HAS ITS ENVELOPE CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING W OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM 29N83W TO 25N83W TO 23N80W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE TEXAS COAST CRESTING ALONG 29N90W TO
21N97W WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED W OF THE SAME LINE. DRY
UPPER AIR IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 23N AND 27N. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST WITH DENSE MOISTURE SPREADING S OVER THE GULF WATERS N OF 27N E OF 90W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N88W. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE GULF WATERS S OF 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W...AND OVER THE NE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS HAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 17N67W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THIS TROUGH PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO FLARE ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17N72W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC. TO THE S OF THIS UPPER TROUGH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED
OVER THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 68W. DEBRIS MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS STREAMING E ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE W OF 78W.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 26N76W BUT CONTINUES TO TRAIL AN QUASI STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH SE INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. INTENSE CONVECTION FLARED OVER THE LARGER N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE SAT. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE HAS CONCENTRATED IN A MOISTURE PLUME NOW DISSECTING THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 19N68W TO 23N55W WHERE THE PLUME NARROWS AND
CONTINUES WELL BEYOND 32N40W. THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERN END OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH LYING ROUGHLY N OF POINTS 31N73W 26N58W 31N36W...WITH DRY UPPER AIR INDICATED WITHIN THIS TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 31N45W TO 26N59W TO 28N73W. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS NOW
DOMINATED A BROAD E TO W RIDGE. UPPER DRY AIR IS INDICATED FROM 09N TO 21N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W...AND IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED OVER EASTERN ATLC SE OF THE COLD FRONT.


WTOK-TV 815 23rd Ave Meridian, Ms. 39301 Phone: (601) 693-1441
Gray Television, Inc. - Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 19955049