Sunday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IS ANALYZED ALONG 18W S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST N OF 10N EAST OF 35W PREVENTING AMPLIFICATION OF THIS WAVE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IS MASKING ANY DISTINCT SATELLITE SIGNATURE. HOWEVER MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE E OF 20W. POSITION IS BASED ON THIS MOISTURE SURGE AND NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT...THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS INHIBITED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W FROM SE CUBA TO COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUOY OBSERVATION DISPLAYS THE EXPECTED E TO SE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE AXIS. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE AXIS TO 78W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N10W 7N16W 3N30W 6N44W AND INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 27N AND E OF 93W.

A DIFFLUENT PATTERN AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. PATCHY CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
AT THE SFC...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN RESULTS IN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS A TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 68W
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

EXPECT HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE ATLC TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
DIVERGENCE ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 71W-74W. FURTHER EAST...A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ALONG 30N47W 26N55W TO 27N69W. A BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS UP TO 200 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A BROAD SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N29W. AN E-W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 21N. DRY AND STABLE AIR ALONG THE RIDGE IS LIMITING CONVECTION IN THE AREA BEYOND FAIR WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.


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