Monday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ALONG 26W/27W IS
REPOSITIONING ON THE 0600 UTC MAP ALONG 24W/25W S OF 12N BASED
ON SFC OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT ALSO CONFIRMS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS. EARLY MORNING VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N28W...BUT IT APPEARS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW
LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
SUPPORT THE POSITION OF THE WAVE. AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMMS REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST TRAILING THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SWD TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. IT AXIS LIES ALONG 81W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...TPW...SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS MORE CONCENTRATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 7N22W 4N34W 6N43W 4N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 28W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE CONUS TO THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NORTH/CENTRAL MEXICO COVERING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE...WITH A 1013 MB HIGH NEAR 27N91W IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHERE SE TO S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BLOWING. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC CONFIRMS THESE WINDS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ISLAND OF SAN
ANDRES DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 68W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ENVELOPS THE E CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING ALSO PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY...AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATER. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS HAS WEAKENED. INSTEAD...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NEAR 30N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 68W-74W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THIS ZONE AND RUNS FROM 26N70W TO 18N75W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING 27N. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AND NOW A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE N OF 25N. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF 22N FROM AFRICA TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BENIGN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED 30N30W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS MAINLY N OF 18N AND E OF 25W.


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