Thursday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THU...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON FRI.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOW ALONG 96W OVER THE EPAC. MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WAVE ON THE TWDEP...TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION EASTERN PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N25W 6N40W INTO NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. FIRST AVAILABLE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
TROPICAL WAVE IS PROBABLY ALONG 20W/21W. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N. THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD BE ADDED ON THE 1200 UTC SFC MAP. IN ADDITION...THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM IS SHOWING THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SINCE TWO DAYS AGO...AND THE MIMIC-TPW ALSO REVEALS A BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 23W-42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N WEST OF 45W TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER N MEXICO COVERING THE FAR NW GULF WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE GULF MEXICO THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY NEAR 29N92W AND OVER TAMPA BAY. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA WHERE A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED YESTERDAY IN THIS AREA...AND MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY.

CARIBBEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE
COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS ITS BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AFFECTING THE NW CARIBBEAN. SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MON PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH A NARROW
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 33N74W TO OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N56W. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE BASE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N37W. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


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