Tuesday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 11N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO
6N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W MAY OR MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS BURIED IN THE ITCZ WITH NO EXTENT TO THE NORTH OF 10N.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N66W TO 21N72W TO 14N71W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINE ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
95W/96W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE STILL IS
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

15N17W 6N35W 6N47W 12N63W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN GUINEA NEAR THE COAST. A SMALL AREA OF STRONG PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W.ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 88W...UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND BEYOND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 12N89W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RECEIVING THE POSITIVE BENEFITS OF BEING UNDER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 12N89W RIDGE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERNMOST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH THERE...AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S.A. COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N66W TO 21N72W TO 14N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N57W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE COAST OF THE GUYANAS TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 65W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MAY BE AIDING THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST OF THE GUYANAS IN THE ITCZ AND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 70W TROPICAL WAVE. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N36W 26N42W 23N45W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THROUGH 33N29W TO 31N33W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROMA 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N54W TO 31N60W TO 28N73W.


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