Thursday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WEAK INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHILE THE MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL
LOW-AMPLITUDE BULGE OF MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND WRN PANAMA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 81W/82W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER WHERE A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS
OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS
MAINLY SOUTH OF 17N ACROSS ERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
THROUGH FRI ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N30W 4N48W 5N47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
15W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50
NM OF A LINE FROM 9N41W TO 9N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE GULF STRETCHING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AREA IN LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REGION INTO THE W ATLC TO OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS.
SWLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS
SUPPLYING THE E GULF AND FLORIDA WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THESE DIFFLUENT UPPER WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SERN GULF WATERS.
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE GULF AND SRN
FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER NRN
FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N82W. UNDER THIS PATTERN...E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF WITH A NARROW BAND OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND WRN CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO BEYOND
30N75W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINS BETWEEN
THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA. ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
TRANSPORTED FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W
MENTIONED ABOVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WRN PANAMA TO HONDURAS AS WELL AS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 84W-89W. CONVECTION IS
ALSO LOCATED OVER NW VENEZUELA AND NRN COLOMBIA LIKELY DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS WRN CUBA TO
OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
NEAR 30N59W HAS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW AND THEN ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH HISPANIOLA. LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
32N44W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N29W TO 22N45W. UPPER HIGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR
13N54W WITH THE RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC FORECAST AREA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N56W. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WHICH IS ALSO PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH
OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


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