Thursday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA
AND IS NOW ALONG 18W S OF 18N. INITIAL ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE
MOVING W AT 15-20 KTS. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR DEPICT A ENE-SE
WIND SHIFT AT 850 MB SUGGESTING THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION
THIS MORNING. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW HAS
DISPLACED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 22W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER FRENCH GUIANA ALONG 53W S OF 11N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. THE SOUNDING FROM CAYENNE...FRENCH GUIANA...
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION LATE WED OR EARLY
THIS MORNING. SFC OBS IN SURINAME SHOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION SURROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-10N
BETWEEN 48W-57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ABUNDANT
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE LIES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 83W AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 9N20W 5N30W 7N40W TO S
AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE W ATLC. SWLY UPPER FLOW
BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPLYING THE E GULF WITH
A DEEP LAYER OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THIS
REGION COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING A BROAD BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SERN GULF WATERS E
OF 94W AND S OF 28N. AT THE SFC...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS
MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. ONSHORE WINDS COUPLED
WITH DIVERGENCE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES IS GENERATING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON TEXAS AND
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDS
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW
AROUND THIS RIDGE IS TRANSPORTING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER
DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. A UPPER HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...A WEAK TROUGH
LIES OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 13N. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLEAR EAST OF 78W
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS N OF
14N. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND
77W. FURTHER EAST... A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N ATLC
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT TO 31N60W WHERE IS BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND
CONTINUES AS A SFC TROUGH TO 28N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY DIVERGENCE AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 59W-62W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1028 MB SFC HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS ALSO PRODUCING
A WIDE SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELY FLOW ACROSS THE N
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.


WTOK-TV 815 23rd Ave Meridian, Ms. 39301 Phone: (601) 693-1441
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 21804214 - wtok.com/a?a=21804214
Gray Television, Inc.