Thursday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC LIES ALONG 19W S OF
14N. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. METEOSAT-8 DATA THRU
1630Z SHOWED A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE. OBSERVATIONS ARE VERY LIMITED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLC AFTER THE LAST AVAILABLE METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY FROM
1630Z....WITH NO CURRENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AVAILABLE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CAN BE FOUND OVER EASTERN SURINAME ALONG
55W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS CONFIRMED BY SFC OBS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SURINAME THAT CONTINUE TO SHOW WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH
GUIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
FOUND NORTH OF THE WESTERN FRENCH GUIANA COAST S OF 8N.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 86W S OF 20N IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SFC OBS OVER CENTRAL
HONDURAS SHOW A DISTINCT TURNING OF THE FLOW FROM NW TO E
BETWEEN 1500Z AND 2100Z...VERIFYING THE POSITION. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND PRIMARILY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
WAVE OVER NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH A REGION OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION CURRENTLY PUSHING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA COASTLINE.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 10N19W 6N23W 5N40W TO S
AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC IN THE REGION BETWEEN 10N30W
TO 4N23W AS WELL AS 26N65W AND 21N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PINCHING OFF IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N93W. S TO SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE RIDGE TO ITS
EAST CENTERED FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE
HATTERAS IS PUMPING DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA. INSTABILITY DUE TO
AFTERNOON HEATING IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS YIELDING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE GULF...
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALSO ACTING ON THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ...GENERATING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN AND CURRENTLY PROGRESSING WESTWARD
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE WATERS OFF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BETWEEN GALVESTON...TEXAS AND FORT WALTON BEACH....FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA
IS YIELDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE REGION OF STRONGEST CONVECTION
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE HONDURAS AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA
COAST. THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TO
THE EAST...AN UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD ARUBA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING THE CAUSE FOR MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROF AXIS FR0M PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
WESTWARD TOWARD ARUBA. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING
THROUGH SURINAME IS ALSO HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...A ZONAL RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED ALONG 28N COUPLED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHER SOUTH
AMERICA IS PROVIDING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ACCOMPANYING
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS PASSING EASTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA COAST
THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS CONVECTION IS
SUPPORTED BY AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE PENINSULA IN ADDITION
TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WANING N OF 20N AND SOUTH OF THE ZONAL LOW
LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 28N BETWEEN 52W AND 68W. IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST
ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER SURINAME IS YIELDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF 53W AND S OF 13N. FARTHER
EAST...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF OF WESTERN AFRICA.
LIMITED OBS ARE AVAILABLE TO ANALYZE THIS WAVE WITH THE MOST
CURRENT SATELLITE INFORMATION COMING FROM THE 1630Z METEOSAT-8
IMAGERY. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FOUND IN MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EAST OF 50N AND N OF 15N. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS GENERATING
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN E OF 30W.


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