Friday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC LIES ALONG 20W/21W S
OF 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW
TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ONLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND
LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUGGESTED BY THE MIMIC-TPW
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND PRIMARILY POSITIONED BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND
OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 21N MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA AT 10-15 KT. A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 17N IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND PRIMARILY ON THE WRN
SIDE OF THE WAVE OVER BELIZE...WRN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 10N19W 9N23W 4N40W TO S
AMERICA NEAR 6N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 22W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 33W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PINCHING OFF IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR
25N93W. S TO SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE
HATTERAS AND IS ADVECTING DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE ERN GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE GULF E OF 92W. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS KEEPING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SE WINDS OF
10-15 KT ACROSS THE GULF OVERNIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA IS
YIELDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE REGION OF STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SIMILAR
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE ERN HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA COASTLINE N OF 11N AND W OF 82W. THIS CONVECTION
IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WEDGED BETWEEN
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER LOW IN THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM ERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NRN COLOMBIA.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
AIDING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. IN ADDITION...A
ZONAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC CENTERED ALONG 29N COUPLED WITH
LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS PROVIDING A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE W ATLC. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF
THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR W ATLC FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 74W-81W MAINLY OFFSHORE OF NRN
FLORIDA AND COASTAL GEORGIA. FURTHER EAST A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
OVER THE N ATLC EXTENDS BROAD TROUGHING TO NEAR 23N BETWEEN
45W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N49W. A MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE PRODUCING A WIDE
SWATH OF STRONG TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL
ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


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