Tropical Depression Two-E Forecast Discussion

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR A FEW DAYS HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A FAIRLY
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WITH AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3
DAYS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. IN GENERAL...NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST EITHER WEAKENING OR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE
OF THE CYCLONE.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR A DAY
OR SO. THEN...IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS A STRONGER MIDDLE-
LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION
OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 12.0N 108.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 12.4N 109.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 12.7N 111.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 13.0N 113.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 13.5N 115.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 13.5N 118.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 13.5N 122.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 13.5N 126.0W 25 KT


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