Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT SURFACE CIRCULATION DEFINITION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE HAD BEEN
STRUGGLING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TO CLOSE OFF THE
CIRCULATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...WHICH
PROBABLY WAS DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.

ALTHOUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS.
CONSEQUENTLY...ON SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY
4.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CREATED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRADES AND GRADUALLY FILLS. AFTERWARD...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.5N 123.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.9N 124.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.3N 125.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.6N 127.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 14.7N 129.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 134.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


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