Friday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED ALONG 36W S OF 12N. DAKAR UPPER
AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WED
BUT...DUE TO LACK OF OBSERVATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...
WENT UNNOTICED UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W 15-20 KT. A BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...PARTICULARLY S OF 9N. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
EAST OF THE AXIS TO 31W FROM 5N-8N.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SFC OBSERVATIONS NEAR GEORGETOWN GUYANA SUGGEST THE WAVE PASSED
THE STATION NEAR 12Z TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W S OF 22N
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A DEEP MOISTURE LAYER AND LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N24W 6N35W 5N43W AND
INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST TO 21W FROM
9N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N93W.
SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING A DEEP LAYER OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE ERN
GULF...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE DIFFLUENT NATURE
OF THIS FLOW IS AIDING IN THE PRODUCTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-29N
BETWEEN 88W-93W. THIS ACTIVITY IS INDUCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE AS THE CREST OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W REMAIN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 86W.
DIVERGENCE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N77W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W.
FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NRN COLOMBIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION BETWEEN 70W-83W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVITY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SFC...A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W ATLC W OF 73W AND N OF 28N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED
BY A VERY LARGE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH SE OF THE
AZORES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE PRODUCING A WIDE SWATH
OF STRONG TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLC
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


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