Sunday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 36W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 36W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
52W-58W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W FROM
THE HAITI TO FAR WRN VENEZUELA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
UNDER UPPER SWLY FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER NWRN
VENEZUELA AND NRN COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 9N19W 9N29W 10N32W 10N38W
8N42W 6N54W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOVING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 5W-16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
10N19W TO 6N28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OFF THE S TEXAS COAST
COVERING THE NWRN GULF. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES IS ADVECTING A DEEP
LAYER OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE REGION.
THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN OF THIS FLOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-98W. ONLY OTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO NOTE IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE NERN
GULF WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE US COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF MAINTAINING S-SE 10-15 KT RETURN
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE CARIBBEAN.
DIVERGENCE ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 12N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-82W.
DIVERGENT FLOW E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG EASTERLY TRADES
THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SWLY
UPPER FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 23N66W OVER THE
W ATLC AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 13N53W EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ADVECTING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS DOMINATED BY A VERY STABLE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 35N36W SW OF THE
AZORES. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N53W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ.


WTOK-TV 815 23rd Ave Meridian, Ms. 39301 Phone: (601) 693-1441
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 22696254 - wtok.com/a?a=22696254
Gray Television, Inc.