Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion

TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS LOCATED
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT
CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SO
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT A LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
PREVAILING FLOW. IN FACT...THE GFS ABSORBS BORIS INTO THE NEW
DISTURBANCE. THIS WOULD DISCOURAGE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. IN ADDITION...SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS MAINLY
DUE TO DRY STABLE AIR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. ONLY THE GFDL AND
HWFR MODELS STRENGTHEN BORIS IN THE NEAR TERM BUT THEN WEAKEN IT
THEREAFTER. THEREFORE...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW
DISTURBANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION WITH
A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 3...BORIS SHOULD BE A
REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO FORECAST AN EASTWARD TURN ASSUMING THAT BORIS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE NEW DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 15.0N 116.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 15.0N 117.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 119.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 15.0N 120.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 122.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 124.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


WTOK-TV 815 23rd Ave Meridian, Ms. 39301 Phone: (601) 693-1441
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 22696279 - wtok.com/a?a=22696279
Gray Television, Inc.