Tropical Storm Christina Forecast Discussion

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032008
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008

ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES
INDICATE CRISTINA AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH...A STRONG DIURNAL BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CENTER OF CRISTINA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY KEEPS
CRISTINA AT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.

CRISTINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE AIR
MASS AND OVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7. THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE
MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL BUILDING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF CRISTINA...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE CRISTINA IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0232Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 14.5N 127.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.4N 129.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.4N 131.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 14.2N 133.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 01/1200Z 14.0N 135.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1200Z 14.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 03/1200Z 14.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA


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