Hurricane Boris Forecast Discussion

HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE 77 AND 65
KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE EYE/EYEWALL STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL DEFINED
BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND THE 24-25C WATER NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT. WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKING BORIS OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY SHORTLY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. BORIS HAS BEEN STRONG AND DEEP ENOUGH
OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO TO FEEL A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS BORIS DECAYS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...A RETURN TO A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 16.5N 127.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 17.0N 128.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 17.5N 129.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 17.5N 130.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 16.8N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1200Z 16.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1200Z 15.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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