Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion

TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

BORIS APPEARS TO FINALLY BE GIVING IN TO THE COLDER WATERS OVER
WHICH IT IS MOVING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LAGGING BEHIND TO THE SOUTH. A
QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 0226Z SHOWED THAT MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS WERE
STILL NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 45 KT SINCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED
SINCE THEN. CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE
COOLER WATERS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND
BORIS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 17.3N 128.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 17.5N 129.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 17.4N 130.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 17.1N 131.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.7N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0600Z 14.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


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