Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008

DOUGLAS IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMING APART. A SERIES OF PASSIVE
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING
OFF TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 330/8...WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN
STEADILY DYING OFF. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT ABOUT 0500 UTC STILL
INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS GENERATING SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 35
KT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING AT THAT
TIME...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW. THE
RECENT RAPID DECLINE IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS DOUGLAS
WILL BE A DEPRESSION SHORTLY...AND IT SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP
SOON. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.6N 109.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 109.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W 25 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 112.1W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.6N 113.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 06/0600Z 20.5N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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