I first told you about the tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Good Morning Meridian Friday morning.
In the meantime, I thought I'd give you an update on the system since it does seem to be trying to hold on.

The good news is, right now, it does not appear to be a threat for us. The two most likely tracks seem to be toward the west and in the direction of southern Texas or northern Mexico, or toward the northeast and toward Florida. Of course, a lot can change, so this system does bear watching for the next few days until we can be more certain.

I'm noticing that shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance is pulsing. It does appear to be trying to get its act together, but it still has a long way to go before it's a major concern.

This morning, surface observations from Cuba and Mexico and buoys in the Caribbean do indicate that some broad counterclockwise circulation does exist in association with the system. Satellite observations also seem to indicate some low-to-mid-level rotation as well as an upper level anticyclone. The upper level low pressure system over the Bay of Campeche is helping to enhance the upper level ridge over the system to ventilate the developing system, and the water temperatures are plenty warm enough for further development.

Right now, it does appear possible that some development is possible over the next day or two in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The patterns over the United States will play a big part in the future path of this system. A huge high pressure ridge over the deep south will likely protect the northern Gulf Coast, including Mississippi. A trough of low pressure appears to be working around that high pressure ridge. As the trough works it's way into the eastern U.S. it will likely pick up the system out of the tropics and sling shot it into the Florida Peninsula. That's good news because it will help keep it away from us, and it may also help to intensify the upper level winds and weaken any tropical system in the Gulf. If the trough does not pick this system up, it will likely work around the ridge that is anchored over the deep south and be directed more toward northern Mexico or southern Texas. The most likely path appears to be toward Florida at this point.

This is all, of course, dependent on whether this system even develops. It has not yet developed and has to organize before anyone needs to worry about it. If it does not develop, it will likely still be a major rain event wherever it goes.

We are keeping an eye on it in the Newscenter 11 Weather Center, and Jessica Dealy will have the latest information on the system coming up tonight on Newscenter 11 at 6 and 10.