Friday, August 16 Forecast Discussion

Well....today has been extremely cloudy and cool! We are actually experiencing the southern portion of a phenomenon we don't normally see....cold air damming. Cold air damming is when cool air is trapped along the Appalachian Mountains on the coastal side. Not able to climb the mountain because the air is too dense, it moves southward along the mountain range, emptying in Georgia where the Piedmont stops. However, this time, the air is moist enough and following the pressure gradient that it is flowing into Mississippi and Alabama until the air spreads out in central Mississippi and the clouds break. Jackson and points west have reached the mid 80s already today and we are 10 degrees colder.

These clouds are trying to break, and I expect to see a little bit of clearing overnight, but we are going to see plenty of clouds as we head into the weekend and into the start of next week thanks to moisture and the jet stream setting a trough up directly over top of us.

Now, the other big question is the tropical wave that is in the southern Yucatan. I mentioned on my Facebook page earlier today that the mid and low level centers of circulation are displaced. Not only that, but dry air is in the center, southern, and western parts of the system. Because of that, I am now thinking that formation of a tropical cyclone will be difficult if not impossible. However, the bigger question is what happens to the moisture. Satellite imagery is already hinting that the moisture on the north side of the storm is being pulled north, which means that we could see this become just a big moisture event, especially for the coast, and perhaps as far north as us as well. Because of so many question marks with this system, I am not overly confident in the weekend forecast, but I do feel more confident that a majority of the models are now starting to handle this right, and that we see rain if anything from this as it will most likely not organize into anything tropical.

With all that said, temperatures will remain cool into the weekend with us not returning to the 90s until the middle to end of next week.


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