Friday, December 20 Forecast Discussion

We have been socked in under the cloud cover throughout the day today, and we will keep the clouds overnight and into our Saturday as well, which will keep overnight lows almost 10 degrees above normal highs for this time of year! A few isolated showers have popped up around the area today, but most of us have been dry, and an isolated shower cannot be ruled out overnight with some scattered showers for Saturday.

It is Saturday night we are watching very closely as a strong cold front will be approaching the area from the west. This front will develop showers and storms early in the day back in Louisiana and Texas and those will quickly race off to the north and east through the day.

Timing
Storms could arrive in our far western areas (along and west of Highway 35) by 6pm with most of the storms arriving in East Mississippi between 8pm and midnight. West Alabama looks to see storms arrive between about 10pm Saturday and 1am Sunday. Storms should exit the entire viewing area by 5am Sunday with showers lingering through our Sunday.

Threats
The main threat for us is damaging winds that could exceed 60mph (even 70 in the strongest storms) as a squall line works through the area. The squall line will potentially have bowing segments (which will increasing the damaging wind and tornado threat) or breaks in the line which will increase the tornado threat. There is also a chance that storms will develop ahead of the line. This situation is not looking as likely, but it cannot be ruled out at this point. If storms develop ahead of the line, this will contain the greatest threat for tornadoes.

What to Expect
Storms will push through the Jackson metro around sunset tomorrow and continue marching east. While we are not in the moderate risk from the Storm Prediction Center, we are under a slight risk, and our threat looks to be remaining consistent as new model data comes in. You will want to remain weather aware starting late tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Make sure you can get watches and warnings as watches may be issued in the early afternoon hours tomorrow. If you can, try to be at home or in a study structure during the evening hours, and if you will be traveling or shopping, make sure you can get warnings quickly and know where to go should you go under a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. Winds will be strong enough to do as much damage as a tornado in some of these storms, so make sure you take all warnings seriously. Also, make sure if you have not already, like the WTOK-TV Facebook page, follow us on Twitter @Newscenter11 and friend and follow myself or Will on Facebook and Twitter.

Once the storms exit on Sunday, we will see lingering showers through Monday as the front and upper level low exits. Once they do, we clear out and return to seasonal readings for the remainder of next week.


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