Friday, January 11 Forecast Discussion

Mother Nature apparently loves to front load the rainfall for the year, as rain has continued to fall today across the Newscenter 11 viewing area. We will see the rain begin to taper off overnight and into Saturday morning before we should dry out for the second half of our Saturday. We may even see a peak or two of sunshine before the clouds thicken up and more rain returns starting on Sunday.

Now, you may be asking, what's with all the rain? Well...it actually is not due to a cold front. We are seeing warm air being brought into the area from the south. This warm moist air likes to lift, and it is moving upward, almost like going up a shallow slope, as it moves over us. As the air rises, the moisture is condensing and forming rain. We call this process isentropic upglide (if you want a fancy word to impress your friends).

This process will come to an end Saturday as what is left of a cold front drifts back to our northwest and will focus rain in the Mississippi/Arkansas Delta for late Saturday into Sunday. A second, stronger cold front will combine with this front and move over us on Sunday. This front looks to stall over us and produce some rain showers all the way, potentially, into Thursday. The question right now is when does this front actually clear out. Some models say Tuesday, some say Thursday, and others Friday, so I will keep the rain chances in, although small, through the end of the week.

Maybe the bigger question is why has it been so unseasonably warm and rainy? Well, we are in an El Nino winter, which typically means we are wetter than normal (this first part of January can attest to that), and winter is normally mild. Now, that doesn't mean we don't see cold weather anymore, but that we should get used to having our rain gear out (or snow gear if it gets cold enough. Speaking of that, El Nino winters usually give us our best chance for snowfall).

For the exact details of your forecast, click on the weather tab where you can find the 7 day, almanac, lakes and rivers, currents, and a bunch of other information.


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