Monday 6/10 Forecast Discussion

The vast majority of us stayed dry today as drier air filtered in behind the cold front that sparked the showers and thunderstorms we saw yesterday and overnight. There are still some scattered storms over the very Southern fringe of the viewing area down in Wayne and Southern Choctaw Counties, but as those storms are moving North, they are moving into drier air and fizzling out. We did officially hit the 90 degree mark at Key Field this afternoon, and it is just the first of many 90+ degree days ahead. An upper ridge and surface High Pressure are currently taking over and that's going to keep afternoon showers from forming for just about the rest of the week. The very wet soil will keep dewpoints up, and while that means I think we'll stay in the low to mid 90s instead of mid to upper 90s each afternoon, extra moisture will be added to the air through evaporation and that will take the heat index over 100 just about every afternoon in the foreseeable future. The forecast for the next 7 days is pretty easy, but there is one question. As we sit on the Eastern edge of High Pressure centered over the Plains, we are on what's called the "Ring of Fire." There is clockwise circulation around High Pressure, and it looks like by Thursday afternoon a pulse of energy will be circulating around the High and coming right over us. That pulse of energy, plus a very unstable atmosphere could mean some strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. While the models aren't picking up on this idea a whole lot yet, I've seen it happen numerous times before during the summer months, and am pretty confident that we'll see it happen later this week, so I have added a chance of storms into the forecast for Thursday. Of course, that's still 3 days out, so we'll have to wait and see, but expect it to be hot and humid each day no matter what!


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