As of 2pm this afternoon, storms have begun developing back into Louisiana along and ahead of a cold front barreling in our direction. A tornado watch is up for all counties to our west, and this watch will most likely be expanding to include a portion of all of us within the next couple of hours.
SYNOPSIS: A strong cold front and associated upper level low is heading in our direction. Aloft, there is plenty of divergence which causes lift at the surface. Warm and humid air is being pumped northward from the Gulf of Mexico with winds east-southeast to southeasterly at the surface. All of this combines for a perfect severe weather set up with the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes.
The greatest tornado threat will be along and south of the warm front. The question that lingers this afternoon is how far north does the front get. Right now, it is sitting in southwest Mississippi and lifting northeastward. I believe the greatest threat for tornadoes will be along and south of I-20, but the atmosphere is primed for all of us to see the potential, as the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the last two days.
TIMING: The storms to our west should begin arriving around 5pm or so for our western counties and exit our Alabama counties around midnight. The time of greatest impact looks to be between 7-10pm, especially along the Highway 15, Interstate 59, Highway 45, and Highway 17 corridors.
WHAT TO EXPECT: These storms will undoubtedly begin to rotate in a very supportive environment for rotating storms. Tornadoes are very possible along with winds up to about 70 mph. If a squall line can develop, our wind threat will increase with winds potentially reaching 80 mph.
Now is the time to make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is working and that you can receive warnings when issued. If you live in the mobile home, make arrangements to be in a sturdier location this afternoon/evening as these storms work through.
Jeff and I will provide updates as needed on Facebook and Twitter as well as on the air. Stay with Newscenter 11 for the very latest weather information.