Monday, October 28 Forecast Discussion

An upper level area of low pressure that was responsible for the rain we have seen yesterday and today is now well off to our east and skies are slowly attempting to clear. We will keep most of the clouds around tonight, but thin them out just a bit and do so even more as we work through our Tuesday. Our winds will begin to shift to our south overnight and mean very warm readings for us tomorrow. As a sign of just how warm, Hattiesburg, Natchez, Mobile, and Evergreen are all at or near 80 degrees with dew points running in the 50s and 60s, and that warm and humid air is coming our direction and will be in place through Friday morning. This means for us that temperatures should eclipse 80 for the rest of the month of October.

This warm and humid air will be in place ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. There are a lot of questions about this front as it arrives, specifically the exact arrival time and strength of the front. As of now, it appears to arrive after sunset on Thursday and exit midday on Friday. Showers and storms could produce some locally heavy rainfall amounts, which means flash flooding is a possibility.

A major threat with this system is the potential for some damaging winds and perhaps even some tornadoes. There will be plenty of speed and directional shear with this system (increasing wind speed and turning of the winds with height) that should allow storms to be able to either bring this to the surface as damaging winds or turn the winds in the storm to cause some rotation and potential tornadoes. The main factor limiting us is how much instability we will have, as it looks like the air above the surface will also be warm, meaning that the air going into these storms may not be strong enough to rotate the air in them, thus limiting our severe threat.

One thing is for sure, with Halloween being Thursday and plenty of activities, this is something we and you need to monitor very closely as we could have a bumpy Halloween night.

Once the front clears on Friday, temperatures will drop back into the lower and mid 70s, where we should be, and we will be dry through the beginning of November.

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