Saturday 11/16 Forecast Discussion

Today was a cloudy, cool, misty day, however we did manage to get up to 69 for our high this afternoon.

Tomorrow, though, will be very different. Computer models can't seem to agree on what will happen...some models seem to think we wont see any convection, some think we'll see some thunderstorms but nothing terribly strong, and some think we'll see a strong line of storms. The reason the models are in such disagreement is because it is uncertain as to how much lifting we will see from this system. We need at least moderate lifting to help us break the CAP, and have thunderstorms develop. Two of the three key factors for severe weather are there: instability and shear.

It's a situation where if thunderstorms form, they can be very strong storms, but if they don' form it'll be a quiet day.

After the system moves out, things will clear up and become fairly pleasant before rain chances jump up again for next weekend.


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