Saturday 3/16 Forecast Discussion

Today was absolutely gorgeous, and the warmest day so far in 2013 with highs topping out in the upper 70s. A few clouds have started to stream in ahead of a disturbance that will come in here Monday night, but before that, tomorrow and most of Monday look very nice and very warm as well, although it will still be a little breezy at times. An upper level disturbance looks to cross the Northern part of the country and continue traveling though the Ohio Valley on Monday into Tuesday. This will send a cold front down our way, and showers and thunderstorms should kick off out ahead of the front. The best dynamic support looks to stay to our North, and the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a "Slight" Risk of severe weather for Northern Alabama through Tennessee, up into Kentucky for Monday, where the Low should track. We could still see a few strong, to possibly severe storms from mainly I-20 and points northward Monday night and early Tuesday morning. This is a high CAPE/low shear event (the opposite from other winter severe weather events), where the atmosphere will be very unstable, but the winds will not be turning very much with height. This means that where severe weather does form, threats will mainly by straight line winds and hail, with a very minimal tornado risk. At this point, I don't anticipate severe weather in the Newscenter 11 viewing area, but this system definitely bears watching since it is still a few days out. After that, we clear out for Tuesday and Wednesday and stay very spring-like, until our next shot at rain comes in Thursday and Friday. Models are hinting that we could see a pretty decent shot of cold air for the last week of March, with morning temperatures once again probably going below freezing. For those of us that have had enough of the cold weather, we'll keep our fingers crossed that the models are wrong! Enjoy the nice weather tomorrow, and we'll continue to keep you updated on Monday/Tuesday's showers and thunderstorms.


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