Saturday 4/6 Forecast Discussion

I don't think we could have asked for better weather today, especially considering all of the events going on. We started off pretty chilly in the upper 30s and lower 40s this morning, but warmed up quickly to the mid 70s with plenty of sun. That pattern will be changing over the next couple of days, as a few waves of energy pass over us, bringing us increasing clouds through mid-week, but continued warm weather. The real focus of this (and subsequent discussions leading up to the event) will be the possibility of severe weather for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A very powerful Low Pressure system is digging down the Southwest US near the Four Corners Region, and is forecast to move up to the Northeast. As it moves Northeast through the Plains, it should strengthen and a cold front will develop behind it. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced risks for severe weather for the Plains beginning tomorrow, with those risks continuing through the Eastern Plains, and eventually portions of the Southeast by mid-week. Our atmosphere will be primed for severe weather, with the atmosphere forecast to be very unstable, and winds will be very fast aloft and turning with height. While we're still 5-6 days out from this event, anything could happen, and this severe event could be a "bust." All we can really do right now is watch how the models continue to handle it, and what the weather actually does over the Plains the next couple of days. After that system moves out, we return to very seasonable levels, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s with partly cloudy skies. Besides the chance for severe weather mid-week, the forecast actually looks pretty good for all of the other days in the coming week.


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