Severe Weather Forecast Discussion

By: Will Harkins Email
By: Will Harkins Email

The weather balloons are done gathering data, and after looking at these soundings things are on par with what we have been expected for a couple days now. I expect that we will see a line of strong to severe storms with a slight chance of weak tornadoes (EF0, EF1) to be embedded within this line of storms.

Some high resolution models are suggesting that we could be more unstable than previously forecasted and this could lead greater potential for seeing severe weather. They also are indicating that we will see greater shear as well which will increase the tornado threat (still a low threat though). I’m not yet ready to buy into these models just yet. These high-res models run every hour, so if they keep trending great instability and shear I will likely adjust my forecast.

Another major factor that has me concerned is our temperature. No model that I’ve seen is indicating we will get to 80 degrees today, but those models have been off by 3-5 degrees cooler than what our actual highs have been. So if we get 80 we could be more unstable than what the models are predicating as well. Again, I will be watching this closely as the day goes on and keep you up to date with the latest.

The time of this will begin around 8-9pm for our western counties and leave our eastern counties by 1-2am. Please pay attention to the weather before going to bed as nocturnal events are always the more dangerous ones.

Right now the threat for tornadoes is low, threat for strong winds is medium, hail is minimal and flooding is minimal threat.

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