Snowfall Expected Tonight

Let me first start of with the fact that EVERYONE will see snow tonight. The better question is how much? That is something that will depend on a couple of factors, which are described in detail below.

An upper level low is currently moving through west central Texas. An upper level low is really nothing more than an area of cold air aloft. This low has some pretty cold air with it, so as it moves over top of us overnight, temperatures aloft will cool. This cooling will allow the temperatures in the portion of the atmosphere where snow forms, between -10 and -18 degrees, to drop low enough where there is plenty of moisture. You couple moisture in the snow growth region with some uplift tomorrow morning, and a snow squall (band of heavy snow) is possible tomorrow morning.

Now, the timing looks for rain to change to snow after 3am. Until about 9am, I expect very little in the way of accumulation (less than 1" area wide). After 9am, that is when we could see a snow squall or two, especially just north of the track of the upper low. If you get in a snow squall, you could pick up 2 or 3 inches by the time the snow ends late Thursday morning or very early Thursday afternoon. This snow squall potential is why NWS Jackson has issued the Watch where it is, and why it may be upgraded.

As for as snow amounts, point locations are listed at the bottom. Find the one that is closest to your location, and that will be your total.

Now, our Alabama counties are not under a Watch and NWS Birmingham does not look to issue one, and I agree with that. The best potential for more than an inch is in East Mississippi if a squall forms, and that will depend on the track of the snow. The squall right now looks to set up somewhere between I-20 and Highway 82, so our area could miss out complete.

As a whole, I expect less than an inch for all locations south of I-20/Highway 80 in both Mississippi and Alabama. North of this in Mississippi is where amounts could be greater, and those details are below.

Meridian: ~1"
Quitman: < 1"
Bay Springs: < 1"
Butler: Trace - 1"
Demopolis: 0.5-1"
Livingston: ~1"
DeKalb: 1-3"
Philly: 1-3"
Carthage: 1-2"
Forest: ~1"
Raleigh: ~1"
Louisville: 2-3"
Macon: 2-3"

These amounts again vary in the track of the low, but for now, I am fairly confident in them. I will note importantly that THESE AMOUNTS ARE FOR GRASSY LOCATIONS AND BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. NO TRAVEL CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. Most of the snow will melt on contact with the ground as we will stay at or above freezing, making it too warm to cause icy conditions.


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