Sunday 11/11 Forecast Discussion

Today was our last warm day we'll see for a while. We made it to the mid 70's this afternoon under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a hefty Southeasterly breeze. As of the time of this post (5:30 PM), there is a large area of showers and thunderstorms over much of Arkansas, stretching South into Louisiana and North into Missouri. This convection is ahead of a strong cold front that will swing through the state beginning tonight, and ending tomorrow morning. A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of Arkansas and Louisiana, but our severe threat is on the low end of marginal at best. The wind shear is favorable for storm development, but it does not appear that there will much instability to work with to get any strong to severe storms started. As for timing, showers are beginning to cross the Mississippi River into the Delta, and that area has a decent chance for some severe weather this evening. Our shot at rain and storms looks to be after midnight into the early hours of tomorrow morning. Some of these showers could be heavy and there will probably be a few thunderstorms, but most (if not all) should remain below severe limits. Most of us could pick up close to an inch of rain, with higher amounts in thunderstorms. After the front exits our area by tomorrow afternoon we clear out and cool down. Highs will only run in the 60s with lows again in the 30s for much of the week. Our next shot at rain doesn't come in until next weekend when another disturbance that could potentially turn into a Nor'Easter comes through. We don't anticipate any problems tonight or tomorrow morning, but we'll be watching just in case. Enjoy the seasonable weather for the rest of the week!


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