Sunday, April 7 Forecast Discussion

A beautiful Sunday out there today, and another beautiful day lies ahead for our Monday. Two main things you will notice as we move through the beginning of the week: it's getting humid and it's warm! Winds will be from the south pumping in warmer and more humid air to start the week and temperatures will respond by pushing 80 Monday and getting there Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of our next system.

Our system for late Wednesday into Thursday looks very powerful as a strong area of low pressure will move into region. This low will have plenty of dynamic lift (support from the jet stream) and instability to work with as our dew points will likely be near 70 and temperatures having been in the low to mid 80s. Really the question that is left unanswered is what mode of severe weather we will see. Models at this point are mostly painting a very powerful squall line or squall line feature of supercells moving across the area late Wednesday into Thursday. There also is the hint with some models of supercells ahead of this line, which would pose a major tornado risk. These questions will likely not be answered until Tuesday or even Wednesday as we see what the atmosphere will allow, but you will definitely want to be weather aware starting Wednesday.

Once this system passes, temperatures cool back into the 60s for a day or so before we start to rebound right back toward 80 for the end of next weekend.

I will also note there is a very, very small chance of an isolated storm each day Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but I will leave those out of the official forecast because we most likely will not be able to get storms to form either day, but a very small chance (less than 5%) is there.


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