Sunday, March 17 Forecast Discussion

Temperatures today, thanks to cloud cover, only made it into the mid 70s. Tomorrow will be the warmest of the next 7 plus days as a cold front will advance and work through on Monday with cooler air behind it. We are under a slight risk from the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather Monday.

Currently, to our north, there is a slow moving front that is producing plenty of shower activity. This front will get an extra kick tomorrow with an upper level trough that will work through during the afternoon and evening hours. With temperatures climbing back into the upper 70s tomorrow, we will have plenty of instability for storms to use. The good thing is that we will lack instability so that tornadoes will be unlikely, but not zero. Our main threat tomorrow is hail that could exceed 2 inches (egg size) and winds in excess of 70 mph.

The way the set up looks now, we could potentially see two waves. The first one being in the early afternoon with discreet storms, and the second being in the evening with a squall line along the front. Once the front passes, rain should come to an end and skies will clear.

We should be dry to start Spring before more rain arrives this weekend. The rain this weekend will sit along a stalled frontal boundary that will be either right on top of us or just to our south. Temperatures will remain near 70 with some pop up storms possible.

After Sunday, it looks like we could see a major cool down for next week. How major? Highs may drop back into the 40s and 50s with lows below freezing. Since many of you have started your gardens, you will want to pay attention to forecasts this week should a freeze become a greater probability.


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