Thursday, April 3 Forecast Discussion

Temperatures have spiked into the low to mid 80s across the area well in advance of a cold front that will be arriving Friday morning. Winds will remain gusty overnight, and as clouds thicken, temperatures won't drop too far below 70 overnight.

The main thing we are watching is for a squall line to arrive Friday morning between 5am for western areas and 10am for West Alabama which could bring some damaging winds and hail to the area, as well as an isolated tornado. Models are in fair agreement that we will see storms that develop to our west this afternoon morph into a squall line as they track east and impact us around sunrise Friday. There is a hint that two lines could impact us: one around 3am and another around sunrise, but I am not sold on the two line scenario. Storms will be weakening as they arrive thanks to the best support being well off to our north.

It appears this will be a damaging wind threat for us as the storms race east and tap into gusty winds just above the surface. Tornadoes, while I cannot rule them out completely, very unlikely as surface winds will be southwest to west-southwest, which usually does not allow tornadoes to form. Hail is also a possibility up to about quarter size. Since these storms should be quick moving, I am not overly concerned about flooding for this event.

Flooding does increase in likelihood on Sunday as the aforementioned cold front comes back north as a warm front and brings plenty of rain with it. We could see anywhere from 1-3" across the area on Sunday, and Sunday night into Monday could see a strong to severe storm or two...IF we can get enough instability and the uplift times right, but that is a question left for another day.

Once this system exits on Monday and the last of the rain exits on Tuesday, we will start to warm right back up. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day with highs in the low to mid 60s, but it does look like, at least right now, we should remain well above freezing Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.


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