Thursday, August 21 Morning Forecast Discussion

By: Aaron Morrison Email
By: Aaron Morrison Email

High pressure is building in at the surface as well as aloft, creating what is true southern summer. From now through the end of the week, rain chances will be virtually nil, as the sinking air from the high pressure will suppress any rain chances. Expect the next couple of days to be sunny, hot, and humid with temperatures hovering near the century mark and heat indices pushing 105 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday look to be two of the hottest days as well as the most humid. Saturday looks to be our best chance of reaching 100 degrees, I have held off on forecasting 100 degrees Sunday due to several models coming into agreement that the core of the hot air will shift back off west beginning late Saturday evening. I wouldn't be surprised however if some locations do hit that 100 degrees Sunday.

Relief comes in the form of rain and cooler temperatures (lower 90s) by the start of a new work week as the ridge begins to shift north allowing more cooler air to filter in. Temperatures by next Wednesday will be sitting in the lower 90s, a much needed relief after this weekend.

In the tropics, there is tropical wave that is being watched. It is just east of the Windward Isles and has changed little in organization over the past several hours. The NHC has given it a 50% chance of development over the next two days and 70% over the next five days. It is too soon to tell just exactly what will happen with this storm if it forms due to models not handling a storm that has yet to develop, but it is worth watching and noting about. As of now, there is no imminent threat to the United States and if the storm were to form it wouldn't arrive until the start of next week at the earliest. For the latest tropical information, you can visit our hurricane page.


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